# The price of power

What electricity costs on New Zealand’s wholesale market, the price generators are paid for each unit of energy, not the price printed on a household bill.

**3.1c/kWh** ($31.33/MWh) wholesale, the market price right now, 13 Oct 2026 · trading period 1, EMI real-time dispatch (indicative).

_indicative dispatch price, the settled number is the final price, published about two days later._

The hydro lakes sit at 123% of their usual level for the time of year, normal, as at 10 Oct 2026. Low lakes and high prices travel together; storage is the slow half of this number.

_storage figures via NZX Hydro/NIWA, republished as the derived share of the 20-year mean, not the raw series._

## The week

Daily averages for the last 8 trading days, 4 Oct 2026: $20.15/MWh · 5 Oct 2026: $25.16/MWh · 6 Oct 2026: $23.08/MWh · 7 Oct 2026: $24.33/MWh · 8 Oct 2026: $32.79/MWh · 9 Oct 2026: $32.34/MWh (interim) · 10 Oct 2026: $36.75/MWh (interim) · 11 Oct 2026: $27.79/MWh (interim).

## The year

Monthly average wholesale price, Oct 2025: $29.41 · Nov 2025: $57.97 · Dec 2025: $5.49 (incomplete month) · Jan 2026: $1.99 · Feb 2026: $39.84 · Mar 2026: $151.82 · Apr 2026: $106.13 · May 2026: $79.65 · Jun 2026: $37.83 · Jul 2026: $47.34 · Aug 2026: $66.98 · Sept 2026: $24.23.

## The forecast

The market operator’s own schedule (PRSL+PRSS, run 2026-10-11T23:33:00), 69 trading periods ahead, priced $0.02–$97.21/MWh. The market’s guess, not a promise; it moves with every run.

## The scorecard

Each forecast is logged before its target period and scored when the settled price lands, mean absolute error over the last 30 days (618 settled half-hours). Ours is judged against the market’s freshest run from before each of our guesses, and a same-slot-last-week baseline. Lower is better.

- 1h: ours $44.12/MWh vs the market (PRSS) $5.83/MWh vs the market (PRSL) $9.18/MWh vs same slot last week $24.76/MWh (n=618)
- 24h: ours $22.76/MWh vs the market $8.48/MWh vs same slot last week $25.98/MWh (n=572)
- 7d: ours $30.4/MWh vs same slot last week $32.2/MWh (n=284)

The market’s forecast is beating ours at 2 horizons, the card stays public either way.

_5,906 forecasts logged since 27 Sept 2026._

## Reading the figure

Until a trading period is final its price is provisional, the market republishes as metering data arrives, and the final file lands a day or two behind real time. A live figure is indicative; a published one is the settled record.

## Does this change my bill?

Not directly, and not tonight. The wholesale price is a share of a power bill, the rest is lines charges, retail margin, metering and GST, so one expensive hour is not one expensive bill. Retailers typically buy ahead too, which dulls a single spike; a run of expensive weeks reaches a bill in a way one evening does not.

## Keep in mind

- Wholesale only, this is never the price on a household bill.
- The figure is one trading period; the market reprices every half hour.
- The published file runs a day or two behind real time, so the latest published period can be yesterday’s price.

## Sources

- [EMI, Electricity Market Information](https://www.emi.ea.govt.nz/), the Electricity Authority’s open data store: wholesale prices, hydro storage, generation.
- [Electricity Authority](https://www.ea.govt.nz/), the market regulator that publishes it.

EMI data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution licence (CC-BY), credit: Electricity Authority.

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HTML: https://www.chch.live/power
Data: Electricity Market Information (EMI), Electricity Authority